The shift towards electric vehicles (EVs) is rapidly transforming the automotive landscape, and commercial trucks are no exception. Businesses are increasingly considering electric trucks for their fleets, driven by environmental concerns and potential long-term cost savings. However, a key question remains: what is the real Electric Truck Price, and why do these vehicles often come with a higher initial cost compared to their diesel counterparts?
To delve into this question, we analyzed truck pricing data to understand the factors influencing the cost of electric commercial trucks. This analysis focused on light-duty, medium-duty, and heavy-duty truck categories, comparing electric and diesel models while accounting for various vehicle characteristics.
Our research leveraged data from Price Digests, a respected source for vehicle specifications and pricing, sometimes referred to as the “Truck Blue Book.” This dataset provides detailed information on truck trims, including weight, horsepower, manufacturer, size class, price, fuel type, model year, and crucially, battery size for electric models. By examining this comprehensive data for model years 2021–2023, we were able to conduct a detailed price comparison.
Methodology: Comparing Electric vs. Diesel Truck Prices
To accurately compare electric truck prices with diesel truck prices, it’s essential to control for factors other than just the powertrain. Electric and diesel trucks can differ in numerous ways, such as horsepower, weight, size class, and wheelbase. To isolate the impact of the electric powertrain on price, we employed a regression analysis.
This statistical method allowed us to compare prices across electric and diesel options within each truck category (light-duty, medium-duty, and heavy-duty) while holding constant other vehicle characteristics. Specifically, we regressed the manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) against a range of vehicle specifications. We included interaction terms in our model to differentiate the price effects for light-duty and medium-duty electric trucks compared to heavy-duty models. The coefficient on the “electric” indicator in our regression effectively revealed the price markup associated with electric powertrains, allowing for a direct comparison of similarly equipped trucks that only differed in fuel type.
The Battery Cost Factor in Electric Truck Price
A significant component of the electric truck price is the battery. Electric trucks require large battery packs to achieve adequate driving range, and these batteries represent a substantial portion of the vehicle’s overall cost. To understand how battery costs contribute to the price difference between electric and diesel trucks, we calculated the approximate battery cost for each truck category.
We used industry average battery sizes for light, medium, and heavy-duty trucks and considered average EV battery costs per kilowatt-hour (kWh). While manufacturers’ actual battery procurement costs are proprietary, industry benchmarks provide a reasonable estimate. In 2021, global average EV battery costs were around $118 per kWh, while in the United States, they were higher, approximately $157 per kWh. Using both these figures, we calculated the estimated battery cost for each truck type and compared these costs to the observed price differential between electric and diesel models.
Findings: Decoding the Electric Truck Price Premium
Our analysis, visualized in Figure 2 (not provided here but described), revealed key insights into the electric truck price structure. The figure detailed:
- Average Battery Size: The typical battery capacity for light, medium, and heavy-duty electric trucks.
- Estimated Battery Cost: Calculated using both the global average and US-specific battery costs per kWh.
- Estimated Price Differential: The difference in price between electric and diesel trucks for each vehicle type, derived from our regression analysis.
By comparing the estimated battery costs to the overall price differential, we gained a clearer picture of how much of the higher electric truck price can be attributed to the battery itself. This information is crucial for businesses considering the total cost of ownership of electric trucks and for policymakers aiming to promote EV adoption in the commercial sector.
Conclusion: Understanding Electric Truck Pricing in the Market
Understanding the factors that determine electric truck price is vital for the continued growth of the electric commercial vehicle market. While the initial purchase price of electric trucks may be higher, this analysis helps to clarify that a significant portion of this premium is directly related to the cost of batteries. As battery technology advances and costs decline, we can expect the price gap between electric and diesel trucks to narrow, further accelerating the transition to electric fleets. For businesses, a comprehensive understanding of these pricing dynamics is essential for making informed decisions about adopting electric trucks and realizing their long-term economic and environmental benefits.
