For years, the mantra was clear: self-driving cars are just around the corner. Experts predicted that by now, autonomous vehicles (AVs) would be a common sight on our roads, allowing us to relax and enjoy the ride. Yet, as we navigate 2020 and beyond, truly driverless cars remain largely in the realm of futuristic concepts. The dream of effortlessly gliding in our “Pretty Cars” while technology handles the complexities of driving has faced unexpected roadblocks.
So, what caused this detour in the journey towards autonomous vehicles and, perhaps, the vision of seamlessly integrating such technology into our idea of “pretty cars”?
The Steep Learning Curve of Autonomous Driving
Driving, it turns out, is a far more intricate skill than initially understood, especially when it comes to teaching it to machines. It’s not simply about seeing and reacting; it involves a constant stream of nuanced judgments and anticipations. Even the most sophisticated autonomous systems are still grappling with fundamental tasks like consistently recognizing road signs and traffic signals. Jim Hackett, Ford’s President and CEO, admitted in 2019 that the industry, including his own company, had “overestimated the arrival of autonomous vehicles,” significantly underestimating the sheer complexity of driving. This sentiment is echoed across the automotive landscape, with some concluding that replicating the human brain’s multifaceted driving capabilities in machines may be an insurmountable challenge.
Ford President and CEO Jim Hackett acknowledging the complexity of autonomous vehicles
Human drivers constantly assess probabilities and make judgment calls – anticipating a cyclist’s movements at an intersection, for instance. For a self-driving car to achieve true autonomy and ensure safety, every aspect of this intricate thought process, both conscious and subconscious, must be meticulously programmed.
This level of programming is immensely challenging.
While modern computers boast incredible processing power, they still lack the capacity for genuine “thinking.” Humans, admittedly, are prone to errors in judgment – driving under the influence, distracted driving, or driving while fatigued are all too common. However, until AVs can mirror the human mind’s ability to reason and adapt to unforeseen circumstances, they will struggle to match the adaptability of a human driver, especially in unpredictable scenarios that can arise even when driving what we consider “pretty cars.”
The transportation sector is increasingly recognizing these limitations. Starsky Robotics, an autonomous freight company, ceased operations in 2020, citing their belief that driverless vehicles, without true artificial intelligence, are not yet viable. Beyond the technical hurdles of designing and rigorously testing AVs to meet stringent safety standards, numerous regulatory and ethical dilemmas remain unresolved:
- Establishing uniform operational standards across diverse local, state, and federal regulations.
- Defining clear liability in the event of accidents caused by autonomous systems: Is it the vehicle owner or the manufacturer who bears responsibility?
- Creating and enforcing comprehensive traffic laws that effectively govern the interactions of autonomous vehicles with human-driven cars and pedestrians.
These are just a few of the critical questions that need definitive answers before self-driving cars can confidently navigate our roads and before we can truly envision a future where “pretty cars” are synonymous with autonomous vehicles.
A Shift in Direction: Autonomous Services Take the Lead
Just as a self-driving car must adjust to the ever-changing road conditions, the AV industry is demonstrating remarkable adaptability. While the pursuit of fully autonomous passenger vehicles continues, innovation is pivoting towards other promising areas. A significant focus is now directed towards developing automated services for the reliable and safe delivery of goods. Amazon’s ambitious Prime Air drone delivery service, still under development, aims to deliver online orders within an astonishing 30 minutes – a concept previously associated only with local pizza delivery. And speaking of essentials, major businesses like Domino’s Pizza, Kroger’s, and CVS Pharmacies are actively testing autonomous delivery services. The current global landscape further accelerates this trend. “People-less” delivery services offer a crucial layer of protection for vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with underlying health conditions, by minimizing physical contact, particularly relevant during pandemics.
Ford President and CEO Jim Hackett acknowledging the complexity of autonomous vehicles
The COVID-19 pandemic, despite its disruptions, has presented unexpected opportunities for AV testing, thanks to reduced traffic congestion. Companies involved in goods delivery are actively experimenting with “last mile” applications, concentrating on the final, slower-speed stage of the delivery process, such as delivering online orders directly to homes. Nuro, a leading company in robotic delivery services, is currently conducting trials in Houston, Texas, with vehicle designs specifically tailored for delivery, lacking features like windshields, steering wheels, mirrors, or even driver compartments. These streamlined designs perhaps represent a new aesthetic in “pretty cars,” where functionality and purpose take precedence.
Will this strategic shift towards goods delivery prove successful? Will the dream of relaxing in the backseat of a “smart car,” perhaps a beautifully designed and “pretty car” of the future, while it drives us to our destination ever materialize? The definitive answer remains uncertain. However, the approach to developing autonomous transportation is evolving positively, with a growing emphasis on shorter trips and specific, practical applications like local deliveries. The AV industry is actively engaged in diverse trials with various types of driverless vehicles, leading to a deeper understanding of the true potential of autonomous technology.
So, what became of the self-driving car that was once promised imminently? We’ve come to realize the immense challenge of replicating human-like learning and reasoning in computers. Guided by human ingenuity, AV technology continues its development, albeit at a more measured pace than initially anticipated. In the pursuit of maximum safety and reliability, this slower, more deliberate progress is arguably a positive development. Perhaps the future of “pretty cars” lies not just in aesthetics, but in the intelligent and safe integration of autonomous technology, even if that journey takes a little longer than we first imagined.
