California, a perennial leader in environmental initiatives, is at a crossroads with its ambitious Advanced Clean Cars II (ACC 2) mandate. Spearheaded by a coalition named CALIBRATE, a growing discussion is emerging around the practicality and impact of the state’s zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) targets on consumers, automakers, and the broader economy. This mandate dictates a steep climb in ZEV sales, starting at 35% of all new car sales this year and culminating in a complete ban on new gasoline-powered vehicle sales by 2035. However, recent sales data paints a concerning picture, indicating a significant slowdown in ZEV adoption, with a mere 1% growth in 2024 compared to a robust 46% in previous years. This raises critical questions about the feasibility of the current timeline and its potential repercussions for the automotive landscape and Upcoming Auto Launches in California.
Image Alt Text: Brian Maas of CNCDA highlights concerns about California’s ACC 2 mandate impacting auto industry and consumers at a CALIBRATE press conference.
Brian Maas, president of the California New Car Dealers Association, articulates the core issue: “We fully support California’s leadership in clean transportation. The state has made incredible progress, but forcing consumers to buy zero-emission vehicles before they’re ready isn’t the answer.” He advocates for a more measured approach that acknowledges the current market dynamics, infrastructure limitations, and economic realities, ensuring a smoother transition for all Californians. Maas emphasizes that current data reveals a critical gap between mandated targets and actual consumer demand. He points out that only automakers exclusively focused on EVs are currently on track to meet the 35% threshold for the coming model year. This situation, according to Maas, signals potential “serious economic consequences” for both the state and its residents within months if the ACC 2 enforcement continues without adjustments. This could directly affect the variety and availability of upcoming auto launches, as manufacturers grapple with compliance.
The Looming Consequences of a Rushed Transition
The ACC 2 mandate carries significant financial penalties for non-compliance, set at a hefty $20,000 per vehicle that falls short of the ZEV sales target. Instead of absorbing these substantial fines, automakers might opt to reduce or even halt shipments of certain vehicle models to California, fundamentally altering the landscape of upcoming auto launches and vehicle availability in the state. This strategic shift could trigger a cascade of negative consequences:
- Significant Revenue Loss for Public Services: New car sales are a major economic engine for California, generating approximately $13 billion annually in state and local taxes. These funds are crucial for essential public services, including fire departments, law enforcement, education, public safety initiatives, infrastructure maintenance, and parks. A decrease in new car sales due to mandate-related supply adjustments would directly impact the funding of these vital services.
Image Alt Text: Visual representation of the significant electric vehicle charger infrastructure gap in California, showing current chargers versus 2035 goal.
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Hindered Climate Progress: Ironically, a mandate intended to accelerate the adoption of clean vehicles could backfire and impede climate progress. If the selection of new vehicles shrinks and prices inflate due to supply constraints and penalties, consumers who are not yet ready or able to switch to EVs may choose to retain their older, less fuel-efficient vehicles for longer. This would counteract the mandate’s primary objective of reducing emissions and could slow down the overall transition to cleaner transportation. The availability of diverse upcoming auto launches, including more affordable and accessible options, is crucial to avoid this scenario.
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Critical Infrastructure Deficit: A major obstacle to widespread EV adoption is the glaring lack of charging infrastructure. California’s ambitious goals require 1.2 million chargers by 2035, but currently, the state has only around 150,000. This infrastructure gap disproportionately affects renters and residents of multi-unit housing who rely on public charging networks. The limited availability of charging stations poses a significant challenge to the practical adoption of EVs and the success of upcoming auto launches in the electric vehicle sector.
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Reduced Vehicle Choice and Price Hikes: Automakers are unlikely to absorb substantial non-compliance fines. Instead, they are expected to curtail vehicle shipments to California, leading to fewer choices for consumers. Compounding the issue, even popular and fuel-efficient traditional hybrids are not classified as zero-emission vehicles under the mandate and do not contribute to meeting the required targets. This further restricts the options available to automakers and consumers. The inevitable outcome of reduced supply and limited model availability is price increases across the board – affecting EVs, hybrids, and gasoline-powered cars alike. With the future of federal EV subsidies uncertain, affordability concerns will intensify, making the transition even more challenging for average consumers and impacting the demand for upcoming auto launches across all vehicle types.
CALIBRATE: Advocating for a Balanced Path Forward
Recognizing these significant challenges, the CALIBRATE coalition has launched a comprehensive media campaign to inform Californians about the potential real-world impacts of the ACC 2 mandate. The coalition aims to engage with regulators and policymakers to advocate for a recalibration of the mandate, urging them to consider current market realities, infrastructure limitations, and consumer needs. CALIBRATE emphasizes the importance of a balanced and pragmatic approach to ensure a successful and equitable transition to a zero-emission transportation future, one that supports both environmental goals and a healthy auto market with diverse upcoming auto launches that meet consumer demands.
For more in-depth information and resources, including an explanatory video, visit CalibrateCA.org.
About CNCDA
For over a century, the California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) has been the voice of franchised new car and truck dealers in California. CNCDA’s nearly 1,200 members are at the forefront of the automotive industry, engaged in the retail sale and lease of new and used vehicles, and providing essential automotive products, services, parts, and repairs.
In 2023, California’s franchised new car dealers demonstrated their significant economic and community contributions, selling over 1.85 million new cars and trucks, employing over 138,478 individuals, contributing $8.83 billion in sales tax revenue, and donating $70.75 million to charitable and civic organizations. CNCDA stands as the largest state association of franchised auto dealers in the nation, providing crucial legal compliance guidance, legislative advocacy, regulatory expertise, and legal support to its members.
